Integrated hybrid multi-regional input-output for assessing life cycle air emissions of the Italian power system

Abstract

The air emissions of the Italian power system, as well as national emissions between 2010 and 2017 and projections to 2040, have been assessed from a lifecycle perspective, using an integrated hybrid two-region input-output model of Italy versus the rest of the world. The Italian economy is divided into 42 sectors, including electricity, which is further disaggregated into seven technologies. Detailed electricity sector data, from Istat, are fed into the EXIOBASE input-output database. NAMEA tables represent overall air emissions, while the Ecoinvent database is used for the electricity sector. Electricity transition scenarios from Terna and Snam have been integrated into input-output and air emission databases. Demand and emissions were tracked within the electricity sector over medium-term, and the findings showed a sharp decrease between 2017 and 2025, from 97.5 MtCO2 to 32.6 MtCO2. By 2040, air emissions from the electricity sector are expected to grow gradually, compared to those of 2030, from 22.2 MtCO2 to 25.9 MtCO2, suggesting that the demand between 2030 and 2040 grows faster than the decarbonization effort during the same period. There is an overall, gradual downtrend between 2010 and 2040, with all air emission categories declining by half from both production and consumption-based perspectives in this period.