Integrated global change scenarios: surveying user needs in Finland

Abstract

A questionnaire was sent to almost 600 people representing different target groups in Finland, to investigate their interest in obtaining global change scenarios. There was a 30% response rate to the questionnaire, of which 93% indicated that they could or might make use of scenarios. Priorities for scenarios differed between researchers and non-researchers. The research community required information over a wide spectrum of spatial and temporal resolutions and for time horizons ranging from 10 to 100 years. Non-researchers attached most importance to projections at low spatial and temporal resolution extending over time horizons up to 2025. Three of the five scenario types surveyed were regarded as of above-average importance by both researchers and non-researchers: atmospheric composition, acidification and eutrophication, and climate. Socio-economic scenarios were also of interest to non-researchers but less so to researchers, while both groups expressed below-average interest in sea level scenarios. Overall, the questionnaire provided a valuable initial contact with potential scenario users as well as useful preliminary information about their likely scenario needs.