Integrated frequency ratio-analytical hierarchy and geospatial techniques-based earthquake risk assessment in mountainous cities: a case from the Northwestern Himalayas

Abstract

ABSTRACT Earthquake risk management (ERM) needs proper planning and mitigation measures to minimise adverse impacts. In this context, we quantify the earthquake risk based on hazard, exposure, and vulnerability in the Northwestern Himalayas, Pakistan. A complete earthquake catalogue along with topographic, geo-environmental, seismic, and social causative factors were integrated into a geospatial environment for earthquake risk profiling. The integrated frequency ratio-analytical hierarchy process (FR-AHP) techniques were employed to measure the causative factor weights and historical earthquake distribution within the causative factor classes for hazard assessment. Simultaneously, AHP was utilised to calculate the vulnerability. The exposure was obtained by integrating the hazard and the land use map to estimate damage and loss. Finally, the risk was estimated and mapped across the study area at high resolution. The developed AHP model for vulnerability and hazard showed high accuracy for training and validation data sets (i.e. 98% and 93%, respectively). While there is an evident geographic disparity in the estimated risk, the results show that ∼25% of areas fall under the “very high-risk” zones where population and building density are high near active fault zones. The current study offers actionable insights for risk-reduction initiatives in the mapped high-risk zones.