Integrated Framework to Assess the Extent of the Pandemic Impact on the Size and Structure of the E-Commerce Retail Sales Sector and Forecast Retail Trade E-Commerce

Abstract

With customers’ increasing reliance on e-commerce and multimedia content after the outbreak of COVID-19, it has become crucial for companies to digitize their business methods and models. Consequently, COVID-19 has highlighted the prominence of e-commerce and new business models while disrupting conventional business activities. Hence, assessing and forecasting e-commerce growth is currently paramount for e-market planners, market players, and policymakers alike. This study sources data for the global e-commerce market leader, the US, and proposes an integrated framework that encompasses automated algorithms able to estimate six statistical and machine-learning univariate methods in order to accomplish two main tasks: (i) to produce accurate forecasts for e-commerce retail sales (e-sale) and the share of e-commerce in total retail sales (e-share); and (ii) to assess in quantitative terms the pandemic impact on the size and structure of the e-commerce retail sales sector. The results confirm that COVID-19 has significantly impacted the trend and structure of the US retail sales sector, producing cumulative excess (or abnormal) retail e-sales of $227.820 billion and a cumulative additional e-share of 10.61 percent. Additionally, estimations indicate a continuation of the increasing trend, with point estimates of $378.691 billion for US e-commerce retail sales that are projected to account for 16.72 percent of total US retail sales by the end of 2025. Nonetheless, the current findings also document that the growth of e-commerce is not a consequence of the COVID-19 crisis, but that the pandemic has accelerated the evolution of the e-commerce sector by at least five years. Overall, the study concludes that the shift towards e-commerce is permanent and, thus, governments (especially in developing countries) should prioritize policies aimed at harnessing e-commerce for sustainable development. Furthermore, in light of the research findings, digital transformation should constitute a top management priority for retail businesses.