Abstract
CCS is expected to play a sizeable role over the next several decades to drastically abate greenhouse gas emissions in the energy system by 2050. With the integrated assessment model TIAM-ECN we project how large its contribution could be in Europe in the power sector and industry, and analyze how this contribution may be affected by cost decline (driven by technological innovation) and ambitious greenhouse gas emission reduction targets. If Europe stays on track of achieving zero net emissions by mid-century, we find that CO2 capture activities in Europe may grow to a total amount of some 1700 MtCO2/yr in 2050. We project that by 2050 power plants equipped with CCS could contribute by approximately 25 % to total electricity generation, in competition with low-carbon alternatives such as nuclear energy and renewables like solar photovoltaic and wind power. CCS in association with the use of natural gas could account for about 35 % of energy use in industrial applications, while the use of biomass and coal combined with CCS could be employed for the production of hydrogen. We find that stringent climate policy measures constitute a bigger driver of broad CCS diffusion than CCS technology cost reductions. We project that under stringent climate policy targeting zero net emissions by 2050, a 30 % CCS capital cost reduction as a result of technological advancement could proffer Europe by the middle of the century a saving of about 17 billion US$/yr in additional energy system costs.
Highlights
One of the main reasons for the optimistic prospects for carbon di oxide capture and storage (CCS) over the past 20 years is that it would allow for a more gradual phase-out of the use of fossil fuels (IPCC, 2005)
The outcomes of scenario runs with TIAM-ECN should be interpreted as projections of how the en ergy system could change under the specific assumptions considered
With the integrated assessment model TIAM-ECN we project how much the use of CCS could grow in Europe until 2050, and analyze how its deployment could be stimulated by stringent climate policy and/or CCS cost reductions achieved through technological improvements, such as those aimed at in the EU Horizon-2020 GENESIS project
Summary
One of the main reasons for the optimistic prospects for carbon di oxide capture and storage (CCS) over the past 20 years is that it would allow for a more gradual phase-out of the use of fossil fuels (IPCC, 2005). While infrastructure re quirements and public acceptance issues constitute clear challenges for the broad diffusion of CCS (Kraan et al, 2019), its non-intermittency and the fact that it allows, at least temporarily, a continued use of incumbent fossil fuels form an apparent benefit. This is why many publications on the forthcoming global energy transformation foresee an essential role played by CCS, at least during several decades (see, for example, IEA- WEO, 2019; IEA-ETP, 2017)
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