Integrated assessment of simultaneous threshold exceedance of heat, air pollution and airborne allergenic pollen across Europe

Abstract

BackgroundClimate change is expected to elevate exposure to several environmental health risk factors, including extreme environmental temperatures, air pollution and airborne allergenic pollen. Given their interconnected effects on respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, it is crucial to evaluate these exposures simultaneously. Yet, comprehensive efforts to do so remain limited. This research aims to develop an approach using modelled data, in conjunction with health-based threshold values, to assess whether, where and when there is simultaneous threshold exceedance of heat, air pollution and airborne allergenic pollen in Europe. MethodsHourly exposure data for the three stressors were sourced from three models (air pollution: LOTOS-EUROS, pollen: Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, meteorological conditions: ECMWF) for 2021 and 2022. Thresholds for each stressor that indicate the boundary of acceptable limits were based on officially established tresholds or literature recommendations. The result is a 0.1°x0.1° resolution grid (approximately 10 km x 10 km) for each stressor, with each cell representing whether exposure met or exceeded the threshold. FindingsSimultaneous threshold exceedance of air pollution and heat is occurring in various degrees throughout Europe. In the summer of 2022, the exceedances ranged from below 1% in large parts of Northern Europe to as much as 25% of the time in the Mediterranean area. An assessment of monthly threshold exceedance patterns shows a dynamic and changing co-exposure pattern across the year, which differs per region. InterpretationThis work lays out a robust approach to assess simultaneous threshold exceedances of multiple environmental health risk stressors. This approach can guide policy makers in pinpointing high-risk areas particularly vulnerable to simultaneous threshold exceedances, and develop mitigation strategies for those areas. FundingInternal funding from TNO.