Integrated assessment of climate change with reductions of methane emissions

Abstract

We have been living in the anthropocene era since about 1950, and evidence of human influence on the natural ecosystems and climate is mounting. Reductions of greenhouse gas emissions are needed to reduce the effects of climate change in the future. In an integrated assessment with the IMAGE model (integrated model to assess the global environment) the effect of methane reductions has been analysed. Reductions were calculated against baseline scenarios P and Q. Scenario P describes a prosperous world with an economic growth of 3% per year and a relatively low population outlook, resulting in a population peak in 2050 with 8.7 billion people and a reduction to 7.1 billion in 2100. Q is a contrasting scenario. Q has the same population development but describes a world where the modernization of the OECD countries has spread to the other world regions between 2000 and 2100. A shift takes place from an economy relying on heavy industry towards a services based economy with a high proportion of public transport. In both baselines traditional biomass burning is replaced by modern liquid biomass fuels used for transport and electricity production. In the Q scenario less meat is consumed. Six reduction strategies for methane were analysed: no reduction of methane (P1 and Q1), moderate reduction of methane (P2 and Q2) and maximum reduction of methane (P3 and Q3).