Integrated Assessment Modelling of Future Air Quality in the UK to 2050 and Synergies with Net-Zero Strategies

Abstract

Integrated assessment modelling (IAM) has been successfully used in the development of international agreements to reduce transboundary pollution in Europe, based on the GAINS model of IIASA. At a national level in the UK, a similar approach has been taken with the UK Integrated Assessment Model, UKIAM, superimposing pollution abatement measures and behavioural change on energy projections designed to meet targets set for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and allowing for natural and imported contributions from other countries and shipping. This paper describes how the UKIAM was used in the development of proposed targets for the reduction of fine particulate PM2.5 in the UK Environment Act, exploring scenarios encompassing different levels of ambition in reducing the emissions of air pollutants up to 2050, with associated health and other environmental benefits. There are two PM2.5 targets, an annual mean concentration target setting a maximum concentration to be reached by a future year, and a population exposure reduction target with benefits for health across the whole population. The work goes further, also demonstrating links to social deprivation. There is a strong connection between climate measures aimed at reducing net GHG emissions to zero by 2050 and future air quality, which may be positive or negative, as illustrated by sectoral studies for road transport where electrification of the fleet needs to match the evolution of energy production, and for domestic heating, where the use of wood for heating is an air quality issue. The UKIAM has been validated against air pollution measurements and other types of modelling, but there are many uncertainties, including future energy projections.