Abstract
This paper presents a new methodology to derive and analyze strategies for a fully decarbonized urban transport system which combines conceptual vehicle design, a large-scale agent-based transport simulation, operational cost analysis, and life cycle assessment for a complete urban region. The holistic approach evaluates technical feasibility, system cost, energy demand, transportation time, and sustainability-related impacts of various decarbonization strategies. In contrast to previous work, the consequences of a transformation to fully decarbonized transport system scenarios are quantified across all traffic segments, considering procurement, operation, and disposal. The methodology can be applied to arbitrary regions and transport systems. Here, the metropolitan region of Berlin is chosen as a demonstration case. The first results are shown for a complete conversion of all traffic segments from conventional propulsion technology to battery electric vehicles. The transition of private individual traffic is analyzed regarding technical feasibility, energy demand and environmental impact. Commercial goods, municipal traffic and public transport are analyzed with respect to system cost and environmental impacts. We can show a feasible transition path for all cases with substantially lower greenhouse gas emissions. Based on current technologies and today’s cost structures our simulation shows a moderate increase in total systems cost of 13–18%.
Highlights
The issues of climate protection, protection of local air quality, limited urban space, and the scarcity of resources suggest that the transport system needs to adjust to these challenges
Lee et al [19] on the other hand, have presented an approach based on reliability-based design optimization that optimizes shared autonomous electric vehicles (SAEV’s) deployment planning and strategy to better deal with uncertainties and disruptions
We will show the first results of different case studies for the Berlin metropolitan region
Summary
The issues of climate protection, protection of local air quality, limited urban space, and the scarcity of resources suggest that the transport system needs to adjust to these challenges. All relevant carbon free propulsion systems have to be investigated, both as individual solutions and in economically and ecologically optimized combinations Such a holistic view of the transport system and all available drive technologies can provide realistic and feasible solutions and show their ecological, economic and social effects at a significant level, namely for an entire urban region. In contrast to previous work, the consequences of a transformation to several fully decarbonized transport system scenarios will be quantified across all traffic segments, taking into account procurement, operation, and disposal In this context, we develop and combine methods to examine both current and expected future usage profiles and consider battery-electric vehicles and fuel cell electric vehicles. We will present insights into the methodology as well as the first results of this research project and aim to contribute to the efficient and sustainable creation of tomorrow’s urban transport system
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