Integrated approach for landslide hazard assessment in the High City of Antananarivo, Madagascar (UNESCO tentative site)

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The High City of Antananarivo is one of the most important cultural heritage sites of Madagascar, on the UNESCO Tentative List since 2016. Built on the hilltop of the Analamanga Hill, a granite ridge overlooking the Ikopa River valley, it is renowned for its baroque-style palaces, such as the Rova royal complex, and neo-Gothic cathedrals dating back to the nineteenth century. During the winter of 2015, the twin cyclones Bansi and Chedza hit the urban area of Antananarivo, triggering floods and shallow landslides, as well as causing thousands of evacuees and many casualties. Between 2018 and 2019 several rockfalls occurred from the rock cliffs of the Analamanga hills, destroying housings and killing over 30 people. Both events showed that landslides can pose a high risk to the safety of the inhabitants, the infrastructure, and the cultural heritage of the High City. To assess the landslide hazard in the Analamanga Hill area, an integrated approach was adopted by means of the following actions: (i) creation of a multitemporal detailed scale landslide map; (ii) geotechnical characterization of the involved materials; (iii) analysis of landslide susceptibility in soils/loose deposits; (iv) runout analysis of debris flows channeling within large creek gullies; (v) landslide kinematic analysis of the rockmass; (vi) simulation of rockfall trajectories; (vii) analysis of rainfall data. The results show that the main factors affecting landslides are slope, lithology, creek-gully erosion, and anthropization, while most of the landslide events are clearly triggered by heavy rainfall. The landslide-prone areas (the phenomena include shallow landslides, rock falls, and debris flows) are located primarily along the cliff bounding the western hill slope, the southeastern sector (where abandoned quarries form large slope cuts), and subordinately in the steep creek catchment just east of the Rova. The thematic maps produced represent fundamental land use management tools to be used in Geo Disaster Risk Reduction (GDRR) by scientists, practitioners and the decision-makers involved in the High City protection and conservation. The study conducted represents an important contribution for improving the knowledge on landslide processes in an area with limited data such as Madagascar, and may be reproduced in cultural heritage sites characterized by similar geomorphological and urban scenarios.