Integrated and Individual Impacts of Land Use Land Cover and Climate Changes on Hydrological Flows over Birr River Watershed, Abbay Basin, Ethiopia

Abstract

Land use/land cover (LULC) and climate change are the two major environmental factors that affect water resource planning and management at different scales. This study aims to investigate the effects of LULC and climate change patterns for a better understanding of the hydrological processes of the Birr River watershed. To examine the effects of LULC and climate change patterns on hydrology, three periods of climate data (1986–1996, 1997–2007 and 2008–2018) and three sets of LULC maps (1986, 2001 and 2018) were established. The changes in hydrological flow caused by climate and LULC changes were estimated using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) and indicator of hydrological alteration (IHA) method. Results showed that the SWAT model performed well during the calibration and validation period at monthly timestep, with R2 and NSE values of (0.83 and 0.81) and (0.80 and 0.71), respectively. The LULC change increased surface runoff while decreasing baseflow, water yield, and evapotranspiration. This was due to increased agriculture and settlements, and a reduction in bushland, forest, and grassland. Climate change increased surface runoff and water yield while decreasing baseflow and evapotranspiration during 1996–2006. The combined effect of LULC and climate reveals increased surface runoff and a decreased trend of evapotranspiration, whereas baseflow and water yield showed inconsistency. In addition, the IHA found no statistically significant increasing trend for one-day, three-days, seven-day, and thirty-day minimum and maximum daily streamflow in the Birr River watershed. These findings will be useful to authorities, water engineers, and managers concerned with hydrology, LULC, and climate.