Integrated Analysis of China’s Export Trend Forecast for Chinese Herbal Medicines and Proprietary Chinese Medicines

Abstract

This study aimed to conduct an integrated forecasting analysis of China’s export of Chinese herbal medicines and proprietary Chinese medicines through the GM(1,1) gray forecasting model and the ARIMA forecasting model. The data of the study is the export value of Chinese herbal medicines and proprietary Chinese medicines from 2002 to 2021. The analysis found that China’s export of Chinese herbal medicines and proprietary Chinese medicines shows a stable upward trend, and the integrated forecast results show that the export value of Chinese herbal medicines and proprietary Chinese medicines will reach US$177,801,180,000 in 2028. The forecasting accuracy of the two models is examined to be superior, the model fits the data well, and the precision of the forecasting results is credible, which can be used in the research of import and export forecasting of Chinese medicine industry.