Integrated Agent-Based Simulation and Game Theory Decision Support Framework for Cash Flow and Payment Management in Construction Projects

Abstract

Effective cash flow management has become crucial for projects and stakeholders given the wide payment-related problems and financial risks encountered in the construction industry worldwide. Previous studies mostly addressed cash flow and payments from the perspective of a specific stakeholder, resulting in an imbalanced cash flow management culture that is further intensified by the power asymmetry of the top-down payment decision-making process. This research proposes an adaptive decision support framework for evaluating and negotiating payment options in construction projects while incorporating the individual and collective financial roles of stakeholders. The framework is comprised of three modules for data acquisition, payment simulation, analysis, and negotiation, as well as decision support. It integrates agent-based simulation, data envelopment analysis, and game theory for a multi-level study of project performance while capturing the driving forces of stakeholders in payment negotiations. A case study project is used to demonstrate the framework implementation under varying payment conditions and interest rates. The results provide quantitative profiles of stakeholders to identify incurred charges, balanced payment conditions, and suitable compensation. Finally, the framework can be utilized by stakeholders and jurisdictions to move towards enhanced contractual arrangements that alleviate economic and financial risks with the informed collaboration of its entities.