Abstract

Mechanisms linking obesity and unfavourable outcomes in patients with viral hepatitis C (HCV) cirrhosis are not well understood. Obesity is associated with insulin resistance, increased leptin, and decreased adiponectin serum levels. We assessed the predictive value of those factors for the occurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and liver-related death or transplantation in a cohort of 248 patients (mean age 58 (12 years, BMI 25.4 ± 4.4 kg/m(2)) with compensated HCV cirrhosis and persistent infection prospectively followed and screened for HCC. The mean baseline serum levels of adiponectin and leptin were 16.8 ± 15 mg/L and 16.8 ± 19 ng/ml, respectively. The mean homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA) index was 3.8 ± 3; median 2.9. After a median follow-up of 72 months, 61 patients developed HCC, 58 died of liver causes, and 17 were transplanted. The incidences (Kaplan Meier) of HCC were 7%, 18%, and 27% at 5 years (p=0.017) and of liver-related death or transplantation 15%, 15% and 29% (p=0.002) according to the lowest, middle and highest tertile of HOMA, respectively. In multivariate analysis, the HOMA index was associated with HCC occurrence (HR=1.10, [1.01-1.21] p=0.026) and was a strong predictor of liver-related death or transplantation (HR=1.13, [1.07-1.21] p<0.0001). Serum levels of adiponectin and leptin were not associated with the outcome. In patients with compensated HCV cirrhosis, insulin resistance but not serum levels of adiponectin and leptin predicted the occurrence of HCC and of liver-related death or transplantation.

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