Instrumental variable analysis of multiplicative models with potentially invalid instruments.

Abstract

Instrumental variable (IV) methods have potential to consistently estimate the causal effect of an exposure on an outcome in the presence of unmeasured confounding. However, validity of IV methods relies on strong assumptions, some of which cannot be conclusively verified from observational data. One such assumption is that the effect of the proposed instrument on the outcome is completely mediated by the exposure. We consider the situation where this assumption is violated, but the remaining IV assumptions hold; that is, the proposed IV (1) is associated with the exposure and (2) has no unmeasured causes in common with the outcome. We propose a method to estimate multiplicative structural mean models of binary outcomes in this scenario in the presence of unmeasured confounding. We also extend the method to address multiple scenarios, including mediation analysis. The method adapts the asymptotically efficient G-estimation approach that was previously proposed for additive structural mean models, and it can be carried out using off-the-shelf software for generalized method of moments. Monte Carlo simulation studies show that the method has low bias and accurate coverage. We applied the method to a case study of circulating vitamin D and depressive symptoms using season of blood collection as a (potentially invalid) instrumental variable. Potential applications of the proposed method include randomized intervention studies as well as Mendelian randomization studies with genetic variants that affect multiple phenotypes, possibly including the outcome. Published 2016. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.