Abstract
Because of the need to diversify the renewable energy matrix and because hydrokinetic tidal energy technologies are mature, many in-stream tidal energy resource studies are available globally. Still, there are many questions regarding the effect of seabed changes on tidal energy resources. For coastal regions in particular, where the seabed is generally more mobile than in deep waters, bathymetric evolution could significantly affect tidal energy production. Here, two models are used to analyse the potential effect of natural morphodynamic change on tidal energy resources at two macro-tidal sandy bays, Adaír Bay and San Jorge Bay, in the Upper Gulf of California, Mexico. One of the models is (purely) hydrodynamic, and the other is a morphodynamic model (with hydrodynamic–morphodynamic coupling). The models are validated against tidal current observations obtained with acoustic Doppler current profilers in the region of interest, using three different error statistics, which showed good agreement between models and observations. The results also showed that the most significant bed changes and the largest renewable energy resources are located near the shore. Moreover, there was a good correlation between (a) regions with the most significant depth changes and (b) the areas where the difference in annual energy production with and without depth change was largest. Finally, a two-year simulation with the morphodynamic model permitted to analyse the seabed evolution of a zonal profile off Punta Choya, the headland between the two bays. This profile evolved towards a featureless equilibrium, as expected from the morphological classification for macro-tidal sandy environments under a dominant tidal forcing. However, most importantly, this natural evolution would not be detrimental to tidal energy exploitation at the site.
Highlights
The Gulf of California (GC), located in the northwest Mexican coast (See Figure 1), is the only marginal sea in the Eastern Pacific
N is the total number of hourly data in the simulated year, or the number of times when TPDi is above the threshold value of 50 W m−2, depending on the variable used
In San Jorge Bay we found that the percentage of time when tidal power density (TPD) is above the cut-in value is generally below 40% (Subplots 1b and 2b in Figure 11), and in the GC_MD model, the regions satisfying this constraint are quite small (Figure 11, 1b)
Summary
The Gulf of California (GC), located in the northwest Mexican coast (See Figure 1), is the only marginal sea in the Eastern Pacific. Many studies (both numerical and observational) have described different oceanographic phenomena in the GC and their dynamics, for example, trapped coastal waves, coastal upwelling, gyre evolution and mixing, or tides and residual tidal currents, to name a few [1,2,3,4]. In the upper GC, located north of the Great Island Region, and in particular close to the head, tides are dominated by the semi-diurnal M2 principal component, with tidal ranges near the head varying between six and eight meters [3]. Spring-neap cycles are evident throughout the GC, as observed in tidal gauge data obtained from http://predmar.cicese.mx/ (last accessed on 9 April 2021). Tidal ranges and spring-neap cycle characteristics both affect tidal energy production for tidal lagoon developments. Other studies have shown that tidal currents are commercially viable energy resources in the Great Island Region and the upper GC [6]
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