Institutions And Institutional Environment In The Scenario Forecasting Of Research Potential Development

Abstract

The article studies the influence of institutions and institutional environment on the development of science and innovations in terms of the scenario forecasting of the development of Russian research potential. The scenario forecasting allows identifying possibilities of management influence on factors of the forecast background. Four main scenarios for the development of scientific potential were studied. The content of each scenario is determined in the space of opportunities which is determined by two axes of orientation reflecting dynamic characteristics of basic institutions and institutional environment. The first axis reflects contradiction between the orientation on innovative development and the influence of inertial dynamics. The second axis is the antinomy between “openness” and “closeness” associated with the influence of globalization processes and the current international situation on the development of cooperation in science and innovation areas. The scenario is predicted based on an expert survey in two rounds. In the first round, the most significant indicators reflecting the influence of institutions on the development of scientific potential, including government policy, economic development, ternational cooperation, human capital, the state of education, dominant values, etc. were determined. On the basis of expert estimates obtained in the second round, possible variants of the influence of institutional factors on the likelihood of each scenario were identified. Transition to the scenarios involving the development of scientific potential requires institutional conditions that stimulate the development of science and the innovation sector of the economy, the development of mutually beneficial international cooperation in the field of high technologies