Institutionalizing Bayesianism Within the Organizational Sciences

Abstract

Bayesian estimation and inference remain infrequently used in organizational science research. Despite innumerable warnings regarding the entrenched frequentist paradigm, our field has yet to embrace the Bayesian “revolution” that seems to be sweeping through so many other disciplines. With this context as a backdrop, we address a simple yet difficult question: What is the likelihood that Bayesian methodologies eventually will supplement or even supplant traditional frequentist methodologies in the organizational science community? We draw on institutional theory to address this question, highlighting the cultural-cognitive, normative, and regulative forces that play important roles. As novel contributions to the discussion, we go beyond our own ideas and previously published opinions on the subject to report the opinions of 26 institutional elites (current and former officers of academic associations, editors, and editorial board members). These leading scholars help us shed light not only on the likelihood that Bayesianism will take root in the field but also on practical steps that could be taken to assist in this process. In some ways, we build Bayesian priors about Bayesian analysis, where those priors will be qualified on the basis of future events and outcomes.