Institutional quality, economic development, and the sustainable outcomes of PPP projects: An empirical analysis of failed PPP projects in China from 2014 to 2020

Abstract

The trajectory of China's PPP market since 2014, characterized by rapid expansion and a high failure rate, now plunges into a state of limbo and uncertainty. Through a quantitative analysis of failed PPP projects in China from 2014 to 2020, this study investigates the impact of local government institutional quality, private capital business environment, local economic development, and local fiscal affordability on the development and implementation of PPP projects. The findings reveal that larger government size is associated with a higher likelihood of PPP project failure, while a favorable private capital business environment can mitigate the failure rate of local PPP projects. Furthermore, empirical results demonstrate a positive relationship between local fiscal affordability and the success rate of PPP projects. The analysis underscores the significant influence of the institutional environment on the effectiveness of PPP projects and provides policy recommendations for local governments to enhance the business environment and other key factors contributing to the resilience of PPP projects.