Institutional causes of the India–Pakistan rivalry

Abstract

Introduction The India–Pakistan rivalry has varied significantly in intensity across both time and issue area. This poses various puzzles that cannot adequately be answered by reference to geopolitics alone. Why, for example, has India been relatively restrained in Kashmir? Why does the rivalry activate some issues into disputes and ignore others? Why has the vulnerable Indus Waters Treaty not become a pawn of the competition? We argue that an examination of regime factors can explain some of the variation in the intensity of the India–Pakistan rivalry. This security competition has never been zero-sum. It depends to some extent on the opportunities and constraints imposed on domestic political actors by the respective institutions. The India–Pakistan rivalry has been dominated by contrasting regime types – Indian democracy and Pakistani military authoritarianism – for most of its duration. We propose that regime types aggravate or alleviate rivalries by the extent to which they are dispute- and war-prone, and their role in maintaining domestic stability. Whereas Indian democracy has been the least rivalry perpetuating, Pakistan's authoritarian military and hybrid (whether the military using democratic means to legitimize itself or popularly elected governments functioning under the threat of military intervention) governments have usually been more escalatory. We suggest that the story of the domestic sources of the India–Pakistan rivalry is complex and we need to disaggregate the regime type to provide a fuller explanation.