Instability in the Greater Niger Delta Region of Nigeria: An Analysis of Violent Events 2011-2015

Abstract

This article provides an analysis and evaluation of the violence in Nigeria and one of its regions, the Niger Delta Region, from 2011 to 2015. The objective is to provide insight into the stability and impact of that violence on the country. The analysis used in this report is based on the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED). The conflict events in the Niger Delta Region fluctuated between 2011 and 2015. The year 2011 had the lowest conflict events at 2.6 percent while the year 2015 saw the highest number of violent events standing at 39.6 percent. Riots/protests accounted for the majority of conflict events whereas violence against civilians accounted for the second most conflict events in the Niger Delta Region. The Niger Delta region had a total of 954 events from 2011-2015. There were six major groups of actors contributing to these events: Outside or External Force, Rebel Force, Government or Mutinous Force, Rioters, Militia (Political and Ethnic), and Protesters and Civilians. The number of events in the Niger Delta Region rose each year from 2011 (25) to 2015 (378), whereas the number of fatalities in the Niger Delta Region peaked in 2013 (213), declined in 2014 (110), and rose again in 2015 (167).