Insolvency Risk. Application of Altman Z-score to the auto parts sector in Romania

Abstract

This paper intends to apply the Altman Z-score model to all the companies active in the wholesale of motor vehicle parts and accessories (NACE 4531), with extended financial statements. Using the panel data model over the time series for 2008-2016 on the companies of this sector, we conclude that 99% of the Z-score is explained by the independent variables (working capital, capital structure, turnover, earnings before interest and tax), with estimated parameters very close to the models classical values. The sample description of the paper and the corresponding results highlights the Z-score evolution by turnover clusters and principal components, with the largest companies performing the best (the only cluster with Z-score median above 3). We notice a tendency for decreasing high risk companies and increase in the medium risk companies, whereas the low risk companies are relatively stable. This improvement is mostly due to increasing capitalization rate and less external debt, despite the deteriorating working capital and operating margin. We believe that future research to evaluate Z-score sensitivity under stress test scenarios would be very useful to provide an insight of companies’ insolvency risk amid increasing interest rates and different fiscal tax on dividend.