Insights into the possible seismic damage of residential buildings in Bucharest, Romania, at neighborhood resolution

Abstract

Seismic loss estimation analysis for large cities is a very demanding yet necessary task; the modelling of such complex systems requires first of all insightful input data at good resolution, referring to local effects, buildings and socio-economic aspects. Also, the implementation of less empirical estimation methods is needed. Until recently, these requirements could not be fulfilled for Bucharest, the capital city in the European Union which is most at risk due to earthquakes. Based on 2011 and 2002 census data, standardized according to the framework of the Near-real time System for Estimating the Seismic Damage in Romania (SeisDaRo) through a unique approach, and on relevant hazard scenarios, we estimate for the first time the building damage at census tract scale. The methodology applied relies on 48 vulnerability curves for buildings, on the Improved Displacement Coefficient Analytical Method included in the SELENA software for computing damage probabilities and on deterministic seismic hazard scenarios, including the maximum possible earthquake. By using overlay analysis with satellite imagery and a new methodology integrated in GIS we show how results can be enhanced, reflecting more localized characteristics. Best practices for seismic risk mapping are also expressed. The results are promising and contribute to mitigation efforts in Bucharest.