Insights from Fisher's geometric model on the likelihood of speciation under different histories of environmental change.

Abstract

The formation of new species via the accumulation of incompatible genetic changes is thought to result either from ecologically based divergent natural selection or the order by which mutations happen to arise, leading to different evolutionary trajectories even under similar selection pressures. There is growing evidence in support of both ecological speciation and mutation-order speciation, but how different environmental scenarios affect the rate of species formation remains underexplored. We use a simple model of optimizing selection on multiple traits ("Fisher's geometric model") to determine the conditions that generate genetic incompatibilities in a changing environment. We find that incompatibilities are likely to accumulate in isolated populations adapting to different environments, consistent with ecological speciation. Incompatibilities also arise when isolated populations face a similar novel environment; these cases of mutation-order speciation are particularly likely when the environment changes rapidly and favors the accumulation of large-effect mutations. In addition, we find that homoploid hybrid speciation is likely to occur either when new environments arise in between the parental environments or when parental populations have accumulated large-effect mutations following a period of rapid adaptation. Our results indicate that periods of rapid environmental change are particularly conducive to speciation, especially mutation-order or hybrid speciation.