Insights from distribution dynamics inform strategies to conserve a dhole Cuon alpinus metapopulation in India

Arjun Srivathsa,Madan K Oli,K Ullas Karanth,N Samba Kumar

doi:10.1038/s41598-019-39293-0

Arjun Srivathsa, Madan K Oli + Show 2 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-39293-0

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Abstract

Most large carnivore populations currently occur in heterogeneous landscapes, with source populations embedded in a matrix of human-dominated habitats. Understanding changes in distribution of endangered carnivores is critical for prioritizing and implementing conservation strategies. We examined distribution and dynamics of a dhole Cuon alpinus metapopulation, first in 2007 and subsequently in 2015, based on indirect sign surveys across 37, 000sq. km of India’s Western Ghats. Predicted dhole occupancy declined from 0.62 (95% CI: 0.58–0.66) in 2007 to 0.54 (95% CI: 0.50–0.58) in 2015. Occupancy was associated with abundance of primary prey species and anthropogenic disturbance. Local extinction appeared to be influenced by forest cover loss, and offset by protected reserves; colonization was influenced by occupancy in neighbouring sites. Perturbation analysis indicated that occupancy was more sensitive to local extinction within reserves and to colonization in sites abutting reserves. The Western Ghats could serve as a stronghold for the endangered dhole, provided future colonizations are facilitated through habitat consolidation beyond reserve boundaries, and local extinctions are prevented by increasing protection efforts within select reserves. We advocate for wildlife managers to adopt a landscape-based approach and periodic monitoring to ensure persistence of the dhole metapopulation in Western Ghats, and in other critical conservation regions across the species’ geographic range.

Highlights

Rapid anthropogenic changes in land-use patterns and fragmentation of natural habitats over time has resulted in spatial structuring of several animal populations across heterogeneous landscapes[1,2]
Models that included ecological, anthropogenic and neighborhood effects on the dynamic parameters had better support compared to models where we treated colonization and local extinction to be constant across sites (Table 2 and Supplementary Table S1)
Establishment of protected reserves and efficient management practices have been pivotal in reversing population declines and preventing local extinctions of terrestrial vertebrates[36]

Summary

Introduction

Rapid anthropogenic changes in land-use patterns and fragmentation of natural habitats over time has resulted in spatial structuring of several animal populations across heterogeneous landscapes[1,2]. Such systems comprise fragmented or otherwise spatially structured populations with source populations typically restricted to protected areas, embedded in a matrix of human-dominated land-uses that serve as sinks[3,4,5]. Ecologists, conservation biologists, and wildlife managers have sought to understand such spatio-temporal trends in colonization and local extinction patterns for the past few decades through application of stochastic patch occupancy models[9,10] These metrics may be important when determining the ability of habitat patches to sustain spatially structured populations of threatened or endangered species. An assessment of spatio-temporal changes in dhole distribution is pertinent for understanding patterns of colonizations and local extinctions

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Conclusion