Inside the black box: credibility and the situational power of central banks

Abstract

AbstractDespite the consensus that the power of finance constraints central banks under financial globalization, the variation in their autonomy from market forces at the micro level of monetary policymaking remains underexplored. This article demonstrates that credibility endows central banks with situational power to make monetary policy decisions that involve less sacrifice of economic growth to price stability. Based on the comparative analysis of the policy decisions of central banks in two emerging economies, South Africa and Turkey, during 2013–2014, I show that this policy space stems from central banks’ capacity to successfully influence market expectations. The argument relies on public texts and over 130 interviews with central bankers in South Africa and Turkey and financiers in Johannesburg, Istanbul and London. The findings contribute to literature on central bank credibility and communication by exploring how credibility functions and creates room for central banks to maneuver through influencing contingent and performative expectations.