Insecurity and Anxiety in Northeast Nigeria and Boko Haram Agenda Conspiracy Theories: Lake Chad Basin’s Oil and Water Polemics

Abstract

In Nigeria and other nations with their territory being part of the Lake Chad Basin, anxiety is high and growing because Boko Haram’s “strident messages exacerbate intra-Muslim tensions and worsen Muslim-Christian relations in the region” (Thurston 2016: 5). In addition, because the agenda of Boko Haram appear jumbled and its sponsors indistinct, curiosity has led to the conceptualization of theories aimed at providing illumination. The study interpretively discusses how insecurity and anxieties in northeast Nigeria resulting from Boko Haram’s insurgency propel the articulation of several conspiracy theories explaining Boko Haram’s emergence, evolution and agenda, and the areas where lack of consensus subsists. The study classifies the theories into three categories, namely, the Freedom Fighter and Soldiers of Faith, Proxy Political Tool, and Islamic Caliphate Quest theories, and examines their suppositions and arguments to highlight the degree of plausibility. Substantially, the study expands the ‘Islamic Caliphate Quest’ theory to include the place of ‘oil’ and ‘water’ as likely variables that illuminate other trajectories.