Abstract

Numerous factors contribute to the variability in treeline change; however, the potential role of insect predation in limiting seed productivity is not well documented. Conditions for seed germination, establishment, and survival are not limiting at the Mealy Mountains treeline (Labrador, Canada), but seedlings are rarely encountered, suggesting a seed-related bottleneck to recruitment. Mature cones were collected in 2008 from four tree species (black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) Britton, Sterns & Poggenb.), balsam fir (Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.), eastern larch (Larix laricina (Du Roi) K. Koch), and white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss)) across three treeline zones (forest, transition, and krummholz) to assess potential seed limitation. During that year, an unexpectedly high diversity of insect larvae caused extensive reproductive loss and damaged the cones of ∼85% of trees sampled, confirming that treeline change models should include seed predation. Seed germination was low and variable in all treeline zones, although significantly higher in black spruce and eastern larch. Most reproductive quality measures decreased significantly with elevation, although no differences among zones or tree species in the percentages of seeds damaged by insects were found (mean ± standard deviation: 31% ± 23%). Based on tree density and seed production, black spruce is predicted to lead the treeline expansion in the Mealy Mountains. Although climate warming may create conditions conducive for increased seed production, predispersal seed predation may limit future treeline expansion.

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