InSAR-Based Model Parameter Estimation of Probability Integral Method and Its Application for Predicting Mining-Induced Horizontal and Vertical Displacements

Abstract

This paper presents a novel method for estimating the model parameters of the probability integral method (PIM) based on the line-of-sight deformation derived from the interferometric synthetic aperture radar. Then, it applies the settled PIM to forward predict the horizontal and vertical displacements induced by the extraction of a new working panel. The proposed method first constructed the functional relationship between the InSAR-derived LOS deformation and the model parameters of PIM. Subsequently, an improved genetic algorithm (GA), in which gross error elimination was imposed, was proposed, and used to estimate the model parameters of PIM with a large number of LOS deformation measurements. The estimated model parameters and PIM were then employed to forward predict the horizontal and vertical displacements induced by the extraction of a working panel. Simulated experiments show that the rmses of the predicted displacements along the up–down, west–east, and north–south directions are 1.5, 0.9, and 2.5 mm, respectively. Real data experiments over the Qianyingzi coal mining area of China indicate that the predicted displacements are highly consistent with those by field surveys, with rmses of 4.1 and 3 cm for the vertical and horizontal directions, respectively. These imply that the proposed approach can be a very promising tool for predicting the mining-induced displacements and will potentially contribute to the assessing and forecasting of possible geological hazards in the mining area.