Abstract
Global mean sea level rise associated with global warming has a major impact on coastal areas and represents one of the significant natural hazards. The Asia-Pacific region, which has the highest concentration of human population in the world, represents one of the larger areas on Earth being threatened by the rise of sea level. Recent studies indicate a global sea level of 3.2 mm/yr as measured from 20 years of satellite altimetry. The combined effect of sea level rise and local land subsidence, can be overwhelming for coastal areas. The Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) interferometry technique is used to process a time series of TerraSAR-X images and estimate the land subsidence in the urban area of Singapore. Interferometric SAR (InSAR) measurements are merged to the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 sea-level rise scenarios to identify projected inundated areas and provide a map of flood vulnerability. Subsiding rates larger than 5 mm/year are found near the shore on the low flat land, associated to areas recently reclaimed or built. The projected flooded map of Singapore are provided for different sea-level rise scenarios. In this study, we show that local land subsidence can increase the flood vulnerability caused by sea level rise by 2100 projections. This can represent an increase of 25% in the flood area in the central area of Singapore for the RCP4.5 scenario.
Highlights
Changes in climate with the associated sea level rise and subsidence of populous coastal cities, have major impacts on the economy, environment, societal and human utilization; and represent one of the most significant natural hazards [1]
Mean sea level increase contributes to an intensification in the number and intensity of storms and associated intense rainfall and storm surges with relevant impact on coastal and low-lying areas [6]
We investigate the impact of local land subsidence on the inundation vulnerability in Singapore in view of present day sea level rise
Summary
Changes in climate with the associated sea level rise and subsidence of populous coastal cities, have major impacts on the economy, environment, societal and human utilization; and represent one of the most significant natural hazards [1]. According to the last results based on the analysis of satellite altimetry over twenty-five years, sea level rise is accelerating and the present-day annual rate of 3 mm/yr could more than triple to 10 mm per year by 2100 [5] This means that the sea level could rise by 65 cm by the end of the century with a serious impact on coastal cities and low-lying areas. We use the PSI technique to determine the spatial variation in vertical land motion (VLM) along the coast of the Singapore over the past decade, and combine PSI results with CGPS (continuous GPS) observations, to examine the impact of spatially variable VLM on relative sea level trends.
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