In-phase dynamics of the exhalation sequence in Popocatépetl volcano and slow-slip events in Cocos-North American plate boundary

Abstract

It has long been considered that the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB) is related to subduction along the Middle America trench. Within this view, it is expected that the tectonic dynamics of the Cocos plate can be reflected, to some extent, in the Popocatépetl's volcanic activity This work uses detrended fluctuation analysis, a method borrowed from statistical mechanics, to quantify the fractality and autocorrelations in the exhalation sequence of the Popocatepetl. It is found that the autocorrelations exhibit cyclic, non-periodic, dynamics with dominant periods of the order of 0.85 to 1.25 years. Interestingly, it is shown that the occurrence of slow-slip events in Southern (Guerrero and Oaxaca) Mexico coincides with peaks of the autocorrelation cycle of the exhalation sequence. The result suggests the use of the volcano exhalation sequence as a proxy of aseismic events in the Cocos-North American plate boundary. That is, by monitoring the autocorrelation dynamics of the exhalation sequence in the Popocatepetl, one could be able to suspect the occurrence of a slow-slip event in Southern Mexico.