Inoptimality losses in forest management decisions caused by errors in an inventory based on airborne laser scanning and aerial photographs

Abstract

Errors in inventory data may lead to inoptimal decisions that ultimately result in financial losses for forest owners. We estimated the expected monetary losses resulting from data errors that are similar to errors in laser-based forest inventory. The mean loss was estimated for 67 stands by simulating 100 realizations of inventory data for each stand with errors that mimic those in airborne laser scanning (ALS) based inventory. These realizations were used as input data in stand management optimization, which maximized the present value of all future net incomes (NPV). The inoptimality loss was calculated as the difference between the NPV of the optimal solution and the true NPV of the solution obtained with erroneous input data. The results showed that the mean loss exceeded €300·ha–1 (US$425·ha–1) in 84% of the stands. On average, the losses increased with decreasing stand age and mean diameter. Furthermore, increasing errors in the basal area weighted mean diameter and basal area of spruce were found to significantly increase the loss. It has been discussed that improvements in the accuracy of ALS-based inventory could be financially justified.