Innovative integrated workflow for data-driven production forecasting and well completion optimization: A Montney Formation case study

Abstract

With the use of advanced data analytics and machine learning (ML) techniques, the oil and gas industry has transformed significantly in recent years. These innovations have opened new opportunities in reservoir engineering, allowing engineers to leverage data for better decision-making and well completion optimization. A key challenge in hydrocarbon exploration and production is forecasting gas production rates from unconventional sources. This is a crucial factor that affects how resources are allocated and decisions are made, requiring the application of novel techniques to enhance hydrocarbon production. Here, a novel and comprehensive automated workflow is introduced covering data collection, data preparation, feature selection, ML model development, and operational parameter optimization. The workflow uses various ML and optimization methods, including a modified Differential Evolution (MDE) algorithm, to improve gas production forecasting and optimize well completion parameters. We applied the proposed workflow to 3144 horizontal gas wells in the Montney Formation, British Columbia (BC), Canada, to assess its performance. The results showed the advantages of incorporating the initial 24 months of cumulative gas production data alongside well and completion data. Also, following the fine-tuning of hyperparameters for the ML algorithms, we identified the most effective model for forecasting cumulative gas production within the Montney Formation as a two-layer Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model. Moreover, using the MDE algorithm, the optimization results revealed the possibility of increasing gas production by more than 10% for about 47% of the wells. This research makes a significant contribution to the field of unconventional gas exploration by introducing an automated workflow that simplifies data processing, model development, and decision-making processes. It also offers valuable insights for optimizing unconventional gas production in the Montney Formation and similar reservoirs, as the energy industry moves towards more sustainable and efficient practices.