Innovative hybrid prediction method integrating wavelet threshold decomposition and entropy-based model selection strategy for building energy consumption prediction

Abstract

Building energy prediction plays a pivotal role in the building energy management system, and an efficient prediction method is crucial to ensure the effective operation of building systems. Existing research enhances prediction accuracy by combining decomposition algorithms with prediction methods to separate non-stationary information from the original sequence. However, the decomposition process and the subsequent prediction of multiple decomposed subsequences result in significant time overhead, making it unsuitable for scenarios with high temporal requirements, such as short-term energy consumption forecasting. Additionally, a single prediction model struggles to adapt to the diverse features of decomposed subsequences, creating prediction accuracy and efficiency bottlenecks. Addressing these challenges, this study proposes a hybrid prediction method that combines wavelet threshold decomposition (WTD) with an entropy-based model selection strategy. The method initially utilizes the efficient WTD algorithm to decompose the original energy consumption data into three fixed subsequences. Subsequently, the permutation entropy for each subsequence is computed, and based on the comprehensive performance of four prediction models (ANN, LSTM, CNN-LSTM, and TCN) on sequences with different entropy values, the optimal prediction model is selected. Finally, the prediction results of the subsequences are aggregated to obtain the ultimate prediction outcome. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method significantly outperforms baseline methods in both prediction speed and accuracy across five real building energy consumption datasets with distinct operational modes.