Innovative decision-making for solar photovoltaic system installation in residential energy hubs: A probabilistic dynamic planning approach

Abstract

This paper introduces an innovative probabilistic dynamic planning model tailored to optimize photovoltaic (PV) system installation within Residential Energy Hubs (REHs). The REH amalgamates diverse components, including PV systems, Combined Heat and Power (CHP) units, and gas boilers, to holistically fulfill residential thermal and electrical energy demands. The model's primary objective is to achieve an optimal equilibrium between minimizing initial investment costs associated with PV systems and managing ongoing energy expenses within the REH framework, encompassing potential PV energy losses over the planning horizon. To augment the flexibility and benefits of PV systems for residential consumers, the model integrates several pioneering features. Particularly notable is the introduction of a heating energy storage system, which complements the REH's thermal requirements and adeptly reacts to fluctuations in gas and electricity prices, thereby maximizing PV system benefits and ensuring homeowners' cost efficiency. Moreover, the model addresses the inherent uncertainty tied to PV generation by employing a two-point estimation method, offering a more realistic depiction of system performance and potential outcomes. To resolve the two-objective problem, an initial conversion into a single-objective problem via a weighted summation method precedes the application of an optimization algorithm inspired by symbiotic organisms. The paper demonstrates the practical application and efficacy of the proposed model through extensive simulations spanning a 10-year planning horizon. The results underscore the model's effectiveness and versatility in guiding residential consumers to make informed and economically viable decisions regarding PV system installation within the broader spectrum of their energy requirements. This research represents a significant stride towards empowering homeowners with invaluable tools for embracing sustainable energy solutions.