Innovations in violence risk assessment: What aviation can teach us about assessing and managing risk for rare and serious outcomes

Abstract

This paper describes several ongoing challenges in the field of violence risk assessment (VRA), particularly with respect to establishing acceptable levels of measurement reliability and validity of commonly used risk assessment instruments, and demonstrating their ability to reduce risk and avert harmful outcomes. Drawing on analogous concepts from the risk assessment and management process in the aviation industry, several key lessons and aspirational principles for research and practice in the field of VRA are described. It is argued that significantly more attention is required to evaluate the ability of VRA tools to generate effective risk management plans that measurably lower risk and rates of violent outcomes. Three propositions for advancing common VRA research designs are discussed: (1) improved operationalization of risk management plans and their ability to reduce violence; (2) improved measurement of change in risk status over prospective follow-up periods, and (3) a stronger emphasis on short-term assessments with closer temporal proximity between risk factors and outcomes. Collectively, these advancements may enhance the validity and utility of VRA instruments by permitting better specification of the conditions under which risk factors exert effects, and the development of effective risk management plans that join together explanatory frameworks for the causes of violence with strategies to avoid their recurrence.