Abstract
This paper summarizes the arguments and counterarguments within the scientific discussion on the issue of the need for an innovative policy in the area of health protection at the link with the transformation of the social and economic development of the country through the pandemic COVID-19. The main goal of this study is to predict two scenarios for the development of the main indicators of the country's socio-economic development: considering the pandemic COVID-19 and the possible course of events without the influence of epidemiological threats. The systematization of literary sources and approaches to innovation and the determination of the volume of negative consequences for the national economy, due to the introduction of quarantine restrictions, has shown that this issue is quite relevant around the world. The study of the transformation of the trajectory of economic development of Ukraine in the article was carried out in the following logical sequence: 1) collection of statistical information, including 118 indicators of social development, the state of capital investment and business expectations of Ukrainian enterprises and screening of multicollinear indicators among them; 2) performing a time series decomposition separately for the interval 5 years before quarantine and taking into account the impact of the pandemic; 3) forecasting the consequences of the pandemic according to the investigated indicators of economic development in 2020-2022 by turning the time series into the Fourier series. The methodological tools of the study were methods of checking for multicollinearity by Pearson coefficients, decomposition of additive models into a trend and cyclic components, selection of cyclic oscillations by fast Fourier transform, extrapolation of constructed models for subsequent years, and quality control of constructed models by F-test quarterly data for 2015-2020 are selected. The study empirically confirms and theoretically proves that among the socio-economic development factors studied, most experienced significant transformations due to the introduction of quarantine restrictions by the government. This leads to the need for innovation policy in the health sector in order to minimize such consequences in the future. Keywords: Fourier series, forecasting, COVID-19, innovation, time series decomposition, health care.
Highlights
The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a slowdown in economic development around the world, reduced cross-border capital movements, increased government borrowing, as well as an increase in the number of unemployed around the world and increased inequality in income distribution among different segments of the population
In the context of the pandemic, there is an unequivocal need to improve the protection of the population from COVID-19, and innovation in the national health system is the main source of this protection
Having determined the type of growth curve for each selected variable, we proceed to the step the identification of the cyclic component by constructing Fourier series
Summary
The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a slowdown in economic development around the world, reduced cross-border capital movements, increased government borrowing, as well as an increase in the number of unemployed around the world and increased inequality in income distribution among different segments of the population. In the context of the pandemic, there is an unequivocal need to improve the protection of the population from COVID-19, and innovation in the national health system is the main source of this protection. Under these conditions, there is an objective need to study the nature and strength of transformational changes in the socio-economic development of Ukraine in connection with the pandemic
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