Abstract
Rigorous research into the historical past of Web technology-driven innovation becomes timely as technological growth and forecasting are attracting popular interest. Drawing on economic and management literature relating to the typical trends of technological innovation, we examine the long-term development of Web technology in a theoretically informed and empirical manner. An original longitudinal dataset of 20,493 Web-related US patents is used to trace the growth curve of Web technology between the years of 1990 through 2013. We find that the accumulation of corporate Web inventions followed an S-shaped curve which shifted to linear growth after year 2004. This transition is unusual in relation to the traditional S-curve model of technological development that typically approaches a limit. The point of inflection on the S-curve coincided reasonably closely with the timing of the dot-com crash in year 2000. Moreover, we find a complex bi-directional relationship between patenting rates in Web technology and movements in the NASDAQ composite stock index. The implications of these results are discussed in theoretical and practical terms for sustained technological growth. Specific recommendations for different stakeholders in commercial Web development are included.
Highlights
We examine the link between corporate innovation in Web technology and stock market movements over time
In order to carry out an empirical examination of these topics, we describe the use of patents as a measurable indicator of technological innovation
Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) values showed that the exponential model was least suited to describing our data; simple linear and logistic models were closer to the true values
Summary
Last year we celebrated the 30th anniversary of the Web. Such landmarks offer natural opportunities to reflect on the formative years of a major technology industry. We draw attention to empirical regularities in periods of economic growth and decline in past technological revolutions This approach fits with a historical social science that is analytical, where unifying theories can be tested with data generated by history (Turchin, 2008). The Web too produced a “network of networks” that encompasses interdependent relations between people, content, technologies and services on a global scale (Hall & Tiropanis, 2012). With this came a democratised division of labour among innovators in the network, creating a shift away from hierarchically regulated forms of innovation that were typical of proprietary systems (Von Hippel, 2005). The mode of power in global economies has been shifted into one that relies increasingly on knowledge (Mowery & Simcoe, 2002)
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