Abstract
A quantitative analysis of the drug discovery potential of the pharmaceutical industry leads to the conclusion that the industry is facing an innovation deficit which will be severe enough to incite further consolidations within the industry. The study is based on a quantitative assessment of all preclinical discovery projects in the top 50 pharmaceutical companies. By applying historical success rates for the emergence of development compounds from discovery projects and for the progression of development compounds to launch, the number of new chemical entities (NCEs) to be annually introduced by the industry starting in 1999 can be estimated. The predicted output figures are not sufficient to sustain the pharmaceutical industry as it stands today. While recombinant proteins and monoclonal antibodies developed by or together with biotech companies may compensate for part of the deficit, this output will not be able to revert the situation. Relief may come from new technologies (genomics and gene therapy)...
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