Abstract
Importance of an early warning system capable of detecting most needy populations beforehand is emphasized in preparation for effective response, particularly for a developing country like Sri Lanka where most nutrition interventions are established and maintained with limited resources. Therefore, the objective of the current study was to develop an Early Warning System to identify early “pockets of child undernutrition” by Medical Officer of Health/Deputy Director of Health Services (MOH/DDHS) divisions in Kandy District. Prevalence of underweight among children aged 1-5 years was the indicator used. MOH/DDHS areas where child underweight prevalence was continuous at least for eight quarters exceeding 30% were classified as “pockets of child undernutrition”. Predicted under 5 year old child underweight prevalence (determined using secondary data collected from year 2003 to 2006) from first quarter of 2007 to third quarter of 2009 in Kandy District, were cross-validated with real time data. Using the same trend analysis model, child underweight status for fourth quarter of 2009 and first quarter of 2010 in Kandy District (MOH/DDHS area wise) were predicted and mapped using Arc View (version 3.2) software. Predictions were significantly validated with real time data (p Keywords: Child undernutrition; early warning system; predictions. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.4038/tar.v22i3.3703 Tropical Agricultural Research 22(3) (2011) 305-313
Highlights
Sri Lanka has remarkable health statistics for a developing country with a per capita income of just US$ 3730 (Ministry of Healthcare and Nutrition, 2006)
Despite many achievements reported in many demographic characteristics, Sri Lanka’s child undernutrition rate is the highest among the countries with similar per capita income
Child undernutrition has been identified as a chronic, serious and a major public health issue for decades in post independent Sri Lanka (Department of Census and Statistics, 2008)
Summary
Sri Lanka has remarkable health statistics for a developing country with a per capita income of just US$ 3730 (Ministry of Healthcare and Nutrition, 2006). Despite many achievements reported in many demographic characteristics, Sri Lanka’s child undernutrition rate is the highest among the countries with similar per capita income. Child undernutrition has been identified as a chronic, serious and a major public health issue for decades in post independent Sri Lanka (Department of Census and Statistics, 2008). Sri Lanka being a developing country, nutrition and health interventions are established and maintained with limited resources. Absence of a spatially targeted Early Warning System that is capable of detecting most needy children beforehand, which will allow more timely, targeted and relevant responses could be considered as a major structural weakness in the healthcare delivery system of Sri Lanka
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