Initial Stage Affects Survival Even After Complete Pathologic Remission is Achieved in Locally Advanced Esophageal Cancer: Analysis of 70 Patients With Pathologic Major Response After Preoperative Chemoradiotherapy

Abstract

To analyze outcomes and factors predictive for recurrence and survival in patients with operable esophageal carcinoma who achieved pathologic complete response (PCR) or microscopic residual disease (MRD) after preoperative chemoradiotherapy (CRT). Outcomes were assessed in 70 patients with locally advanced esophageal cancer who achieved pathologic major response (53 with PCR and 17 with MRD) after preoperative CRT. At a median follow-up of 38.6 months for surviving patients, 17 of 70 patients (24.3%) experienced disease recurrence and 31 (44.3%) died. Clinical stage (II vs III; p = 0.013) and pathologic response (PCR vs. MRD; p = 0.014) were independent predictors of disease recurrence. Median overall survival (OS) was 99.6 months (95% CI, 44.1-155.1 months) and the 5-year OS rate was 57%. Median recurrence-free survival (RFS) was 71.5 months (95% CI, 39.5-103.6 months) and the 5-year RFS rate was 51.3%. Median OS of patients with Stage II and Stage III disease was 108.8 months and 39.9 months, respectively, and the 5-year OS rates were 68.2% and 27.0%, respectively (p = 0.0003). In a subgroup of patients with PCR, median OS and RFS were also significantly different according to clinical stage. Multivariate analysis showed that clinical stage was an independent predictor of RFS (p = 0.01) and OS (p = 0.008). Even though patients achieved major response after preoperative CRT, pretreatment clinical stage is an important prognostic marker for recurrence and survival. Patients with MRD have an increased recurrence risk but similar survival compared with patients achieved PCR.