Initial Expectations of Team Performance: Specious Speculation or Framing the Future?

Abstract

This study demonstrates that the initial performance expectations of teams, formed even before members are very familiar with each other or the team’s task, are a key determinant of the team’s ultimate success. Specifically, we argue that such early formed beliefs determine the extent to which teams frame their task as a gain or loss context, which affects their orientation toward risk-taking. Our results suggest a self-fulfilling prophecy effect: Initial team performance expectations lead to the fulfillment of such expectations via risk-taking behavior. We also show that teams are less susceptible to this “risk-taking trap” to the extent that members have low avoidant or high dependent decision-making styles. We tested and found support for our predictions in a study of 540 individuals comprising 108 five-member teams working in a controlled environment. Our study contributes to theory on emergent states and decision biases in teams, and we offer a number of practical implications.