Inicjatywa Trójmorza w świetle teorii realizmu. Polityczne aspekty nowej formy współpracy dwunastu państw

Abstract

The aim of the article is to explain the motives of cooperation within the framework of the Three Seas Initiative in the light of the theory of realism. The following research questions are addressed: What are the interests of the states involved in creating the Three Seas Initiative? Does the Three Seas Initiative contribute to strengthening or weakening the integration process in the EU? Does the Three Seas Initiative affect the balance of power in the regional and global dimension? How can classical realism, structural realism (neorealism) and neoclassical realism help to answer these questions? On the one hand, the Three Seas Initiative is considered as Poland's attempt to strengthen its role and the position of Central and Eastern Europe, with the support of the United States. On the other hand, the declared goals of the Three Seas Initiative are to consolidate the European Union and even the entire Euro-Atlantic community. The United States consistently supports this initiative, which is in line with its interests, particularly in the sphere of energy. The reaction of European actors was more complex, but in 2018 the European Commission unexpectedly recognised that the Three Seas Initiative complemented the activities of the European Union, and at the same time Germany declared its willingness to join the group. The theory of realism explains well the motives of competition and conflicts, focusing on the aspect of security and power, and admitting the primacy of the political sphere. When explaining cooperation in the Three Seas Initiative, this approach faces difficulties, as the cooperation’s emphasis has been shifted to the economic dimension. Its declaratory objectives focus on infrastructure development in transport, energy and digital fields. Nevertheless, the political significance of this new initiative is increasing. The priorities as stated in the Bucharest declaration comprise strengthening the cohesion of the EU and the transatlantic ties, highlighting the economic presence of the US in the region. In case of further unfavourable transformations of the international order, an increase of threats for the region may lead to strengthening the political dimension of the Three Seas Initiative as a tool for building relations between Central and Eastern Europe and the United States. The article is an introduction and an incentive for further research on the Three Seas Initiative based on the theories of international relations.