Abstract
We estimate the probability that a hard nucleon-nucleon collision is able to nucleate a seed of quark--gluon plasma in the surrounding hot and dense hadronic matter formed during a central collision of two large nuclei at AGS energies. The probability of producing at least one such seed is on the order of 1-100\%. We investigate the influence of quark--gluon plasma formation on the observed multiplicity distribution and find that it may lead to noticable structure in the form of a bump or shoulder.
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