Abstract
We propose a structural vector autoregressive (VAR) model of informed trading in option markets to analyze whether investors use options to trade on private information about the underlying price and/or the underlying's volatility. We decompose option order flow into exposures to the underlying asset (through the option delta) and its volatility (through the option vega). Our proposed methodological framework facilitates meaningfully aggregation of option order flows for different strike prices and maturities, and increases statistical power to identify informed trading. A fitted model confirms that S&P500 option trades are indeed informative about changes in both the underlying and volatility.
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