Information Transmission between Livestock Futures and Expert Price Forecasts

Abstract

We evaluate the interactions in four markets among expert forecasts, futures prices, and realized cash hog prices. Vector autoregression findings indicate a dynamic interaction among futures and cash markets, with some past forecasts affecting cash prices. Contemporaneous causal analysis reveals causation of cash prices by futures prices and by some expert forecasts, and is consistent with the causal ordering of prior day futures, subsequent forecasts, and cash prices realized one-quarter later. Forecast error decompositions indicate expert forecasts are substantially influenced by futures prices, but have more influence on futures and cash hog prices than previously identified.