INFORMATION SEQUENCE, RESPONSE MODE AND ASSET VALUATION JUDGMENT

Abstract

Hogarth and Einhorn (1990) posited a psychological model for updating beliefs that is based on an anchoring and adjustment process which incorporates a contrast or surprise effect; in particular, the larger the current belief in a hypothesis or outcome, the more it is discounted by negative information and the less it is increased by positive information. The model provides a set of predictions that could be of important implications for financial decisions. It predicts strong recency effects for mixed or conflicting information (negative and positive), and no order effects for consistent information (all positive or all negative). Furthermore, an earlier version of the model (1985) predicts that simultaneous processing of consistent information leads to more extreme responses than the sequential processing of the same information. Einhorn and Hogarth refer to this phenomenon as a “dilution effect.” This paper reports the results of testing these qualitative predictions of the belief updating model. Three experiments involving a content rich scenario of asset valuation judgment were conducted using a sample of 120 subjects enroled in two MBA courses. The results support the model's prediction that there is no order effects attributable to sequential processing of consistent information. The results also support the existence of recency effects for mixed information regardless of the response mode. However, no significant effects were observed for processing consistent information under different response modes.