Information Seeking with Multiple Sources of Conflicting and Unreliable Information

Abstract

The effects of information conflict, the frequency with which the information is updated, and the reliability of the information sources upon information seeking and decision behavior were studied. Sixteen U. S. Army enlisted men performed a computer-controlled task in which they had to request updated enemy-position reports from three information sources to determine which of eight locations was the target of a gradual enemy advance. Forty problems, presented twice each, were arranged in two within-subject factorial designs-with source reliability varied between and within problems, respectively. Subjects were permitted to make up to three decisions on each problem, with correct decisions rewarded and incorrect decisions penalized according to a non-linear payoff function. Results from analyses of variance indicated that less information was sought prior to an initial decision (a) for higher than for lower reliability conditions, (b) as update frequency decreased, and (c) as degree of conflict increased. When all sources were of higher reliability, accuracy of decisions was higher; but, in general, accuracy was complexly affected by conflict and update frequency. These results were discussed in terms of the cost of requesting information and the probability that an update would contain accurate information. Information sampling and decision latencies as well as other indices of performance were also evaluated and discussed.