Abstract

In this study, the risk and benefit mechanism of an information integration system embedded into a system dynamics model is applied to calculate the overall risk of urban rail transit public–private partnership (PPP) projects. Moreover, the cash flow and accumulation of a PPP project are simulated. In the risk mechanism information integration system, a risk allocation decision model is established through an empirical case study, and a correlation analysis is performed on the evaluation of different risk allocation schemes to determine the best decision scheme for each risk factor, social capital, and the government. In the return mechanism information integration process, the final decision-making scheme is obtained from the perspective of social capital, the government, and the public through the analysis of the net present value. Chengdu Rail Transit Line 17 phase I PPP project is presented as an empirical case. The risk allocation and return mechanism information integration scheme is determined by applying the methods in detail.

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