Information Fusion for Computational Assessment of Air Quality and Health Effects

Abstract

SM5-PD-07 This work presents the functional layout, the operational features and characteristic results of the information fusion method ICAROS NET. This is an innovative technique for the assessment of air quality and the related potential health effects at the urban and regional scales. It is based on multilayer fusion of environmental and epidemiologic data and models aiming at reducing the error inherent to environmental measurements and their statistical interpretation. ICAROS NET exploits to the fullest the information potential of Earth observation data, atmospheric chemical and transport models, and ground-based measurements. The assimilation of information from all 3 data sources into an optimized computational model allows the estimation of tropospheric particulate loading at very high precision and very high spatial resolution. The computational system and the corresponding method for human exposure and health effect assessment due to airborne toxicants is based on: Integration and assimilation of different environmental data types, including data coming from satellite-based remote sensing, ground-based air quality measurements, and advanced atmospheric modeling; Emergence of meta-knowledge through the use of inference techniques for systemic data validation and forecasting; Sharing of the knowledge acquired through environmental data fusion among urban policy-makers and concerned stakeholders using current and future telematics infrastructure; Decision support for air quality management at the urban and trans-boundary scales based on multicriteria analysis and interactive optimization. ICAROS NET technology shows great potential for integrated air quality and health management. The information fusion methodology implemented herein functionally integrates all 3 information sources (Earth observation, modelling and analytic measurements) and reduces the overall error of the method to circa 10% with regard to estimation of human exposure to airborne toxicants. Results from the implementation of this method for advanced spatially resolved assessment of human exposure and the associated health effects at the urban (eg, Athens, Greece) and regional (eg, Lombardy, Italy) scales are given. This overall system performance is a significant improvement over the best atmospheric models and the pollutant concentration maps produced by spatial interpolation of measurements from the ground. Based on the increased accuracy of the result of information fusion in terms of air quality characterization and taking advantage of its specially designed geo-database, ICAROS NET provides an equally powerful tool for calculating the relative risk on human health posed by airborne chemicals in fine particle form. On the basis of average values of PM loading in Athens, acute mortality due to airborne particles was estimated to have increased by 0.1% to 1% in 2002 and by 1% to 6% (in the city center) in 2003. Chronic mortality values were significantly higher ranging from 10% increase in 2002 up to 30% (in some hot spots) in 2003. Morbidity indicators such as increase in hospital admissions with respiratory problems showed a similarly increasing trend. Analogous results at the regional scale in Lombardy, northern Italy, showed a definitively increasing trend in both morbidity and mortality indicators, albeit more contained than in the case of Athens for the period 2001 to 2003.